day 3.47

the oscars: snubs and surprises

you know the drill - here's my take on the who should get the big prizes at this year's academy awards.

best picture

• 127 hours
• black swan
• inception
• the fighter
• the kids are all right
• the king's speech
• the social network
• toy story 3
• true grit
• winter's bone

the best picture race really comes down to two movies: the social network and the king's speech. those have been the prize-nabbing flicks at this season's award shows so far. my money is on the social network taking home the top honor. after the hurt locker took home the statue last year, i expect the bigger film to win. i'm not a fan of having 10 best picture noms - it's all political. the more titles nominated, the more big stars the academy can get to attend the show, and the more companies it makes happy. plus, all of these films can now be touted as "best picture nominee..." and, it seems like if something has its own "best..." category (i.e. foreign language, animated), there's no reason it should also grab top honors.

best actor

• jeff bridges, true grit
• javier bardem, biutiful
• jesse eisenberg, the social network
• colin firth, the king's speech
• james franco, 127 hours

i thought the globes would give this prize to jesse eisenberg, but after colin firth grabbed both the critic's choice and glob, i expect him to head home with this one, too. his performance is much more nuanced and required a lot more acting than eisenberg's. it is nice to see franco finally get some credit for his performance in 127 hours - especially because he's hosting the show. the biggest surprise in this category? javier bardem. the biggest surprises? mark wahlberg for the fighter and ryan gosling for blue valentine.

best actress

• annette bening, the kids are all right
• nicole kidman, rabbit hole
• jennifer lawrence, winter's bone
• natalie portman, black swan
• michelle williams, blue valentine

this is an interesting race because, until now, performances this awards season have been split between comedic and dramatic. until black swan, i would've said this was annette bening's award to lose. turns out she probably will. natalie portman gives the performance of a lifetime in black swan. while the movie is a little out there, portman's performance is top notch. the biggest surprise in this category is nicole kidman. rabbit hole's buzz has been pretty minimal, and kidman was most likely nominated just because she's a past winner. the biggest snub for me is julianne moore, who held her own against annette bening in the kids are all right.

best actor in a supporting role

• christian bale, the fighter
• john hawkes, winter's bone
• jeremy renner, the town
• mark ruffalo, the kids are all right
• geoffrey rush, the king's speech

going off this year's precedence, christian bale's turn in the fighter will probably get him the award. it's nice to see that the academy didn't forget about winter's bone, a film that got a lot of buzz when it came out early last year, but got lost against all the other great films released in 2010. i'm also beyond excited that mark ruffalo got a nomination for the kids are all right. all the other shows completely snubbed him, when he gave one of the best performances this year.

best actress in a supporting role

• amy adams, the figther
• helena bonham carter, the king's speech
• melissa leo, the fighter
• hailee steinfeld, true grit
• jacki weaver, animal kingdom

this list is nearly identical to every other list this season. expect melissa leo to win the oscar, just like she did the critic's choice and golden globe award. it's interesting that jacki weaver received noms across the board this year for a film that virtually no one has seen. again, it's politics. she's been nominated for everything else, and therefore she's been nominated for an oscar. expect her to blow up based on this nomination alone.

best animated film

• how to train your dragon
• toy story 3
• the illusionist

is there even a question? toy story 3 nabbed a spot on the best picture list, so there shouldn't be any surprises here. it is interesting that only three flicks get nominated in the animation category. it seems like best picture could donate a few slots back to animation. disney's tangled definitely deserves a spot on this list, while the illusionist made it solely based on the fact that it's an art house favorite and intended for an older audience.

best director

• darren aronofsky, black swan
• david fincher, the social network
• tom hooper, the king's speech
• joel and ethan coen, true grit
• david o. russell, the fighter

the man who more deserves this statue isn't even on the list. chris nolan proved he's more than just a one trick pony with inception, proving that there are still original ideas out in hollywood. but, because nolan was snubbed, the race comes down to aronofsky and fincher. aronofsky has a very distinct vision, while fincher was responsible for what is sure to be best picture. i'm guessing fincher will sneak by aronofsky to take home the title.

click here is see the nominations in all the lesser-cared about categories, and don't forget to watch anne hathaway and james franco host the 83rd annual academy awards februray 27th on abc.